The forced return of significant numbers of migrants who are not being granted refugee status or residence permits is common practice in most destination countries. The United States deported a total of 6.4 million migrants between 2000 and 2020, 90% of whom were sent back to Latin America and the Caribbean (US Department of Homeland Security, various years). Countries of the European Union ordered the return of more than 7 million persons since the year 2008 and deported almost 2.2 million (Eurostat 2023). For some countries, the inflow of returned migrants is of considerable size. For countries such as El Salvador and Honduras, the cumulative inflow of deported migrants from the US since the late 1990s is equivalent to roughly 5% of their current population stocks (US Department of Homeland Security, various years). Current migration debates, almost everywhere, include calls for scaling up forced returns.

The forced return of large numbers of migrants who are denied refugee status or residence permits is a common practice in most destination countries. Between 2000 and 2020, the United States deported 6.4 million migrants, 90% of whom were sent back to Latin America and the Caribbean (US Department of Homeland Security, various years). Since 2008, European Union countries have ordered the return of more than 7 million individuals and deported nearly 2.2 million (Eurostat 2023).

For some countries, the scale of return migration is significant. In El Salvador and Honduras, the cumulative inflow of deported migrants from the U.S. since the late 1990s amounts to approximately 5% of their current population. Meanwhile, calls to expand forced returns continue to shape migration debates worldwide.

We study deportation risks and consequences in two projects:

1. Immigration Enforcement across the World: The Drivers and Consequences of Deportation Risk, with funding from Thyssen Foundation (DEPRISK project, 09/2022-09/2025)
2. The Long Shadow of Immigration Enforcement, with funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DEPCON project, 02/2025-022/2027)

You can learn more about the projects' team here.

While significant efforts have been made over the past two decades to collect data on emigration and migrant remittances, there remains a lack of detailed annual country-level panel data on deportation corridors covering a broad range of country pairs over extended periods. As a result, few empirically grounded theories have been developed to examine the links between enforced return and political or economic factors in host and origin countries.

The DEPRISK project aims to fill this gap by compiling a country-by-country database on deportations using administrative records from host countries. This data will help uncover broader patterns and mechanisms shaping the political economy of deportation regimes in deporting countries, as well as their impacts on migrants’ countries of origin.

The project is funded by the Thyssen Foundation from September 2022 to September 2025.

While qualitative research has documented the challenges faced by returnees in their reintegration journeys, the broader social, economic, and political consequences of deportations on their families and communities remain largely unexplored. This project seeks to address this gap by examining how deportations reshape family dynamics, livelihoods, and coping strategies within transnational households.

El Salvador provides a unique case for studying deportation externalities. As of 2020, almost 1.4 million Salvadoran-born migrants lived in the US, more than a fifth of the population of El Salvador. Many of these are vulnerable to deportations. An estimated 750,000 of Salvadoran migrants in the US lack legal status. Over the past two decades, the cumulative number of deportees returned from the U.S. is equivalent to 5% of El Salvador’s current population. To better understand the impact of these large-scale returns on communities of origin, this project will conduct in-depth surveys among migrant households in El Salvador and among households being exposed to the forced return of close relatives.

Research is funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) from February 2025 to February 2027.